A quick prediction/likelihood analysis for tomorrow’s Apple event. I shall score myself at its conclusion.
iPad 2 — count on it
The event is very clearly about an iPad upgrade. Put all your money on that, if you can find a friend stupid enough to match your bet.
iOS 4.3 — count on it
A new iOS device means a new version of iOS. 4.3 has been in developer beta for a couple of months now, and it seems like it’ll be the version shipping on the second-generation tablet.
Random House on iBookstore — very likely
Random House, the world’s largest book publisher, announced today that they’re switching pricing models to the same kind Apple uses. It would be a major boon to the store (whose name I’m not comfortable typing more than once).
iOS 5 preview — maybe
Apple has done next-generation iOS previews in the March/April timeframe for the last three years. It might make sense to combine them into one event. If there is iOS 5 talk, I’m betting on a revised notification system, new voice controls and a new Maps application. None of the NFC stuff will be announced.
Developer show-off — sadly very likely
Five-or-so developers show off their apps in a clumsy manner. Oh, the joy and the suspense. Note that I like the idea of such an opportunity, but most developers that have demoed their apps over the years are lousy public speakers.
Steve Jobs — unlikely
I don’t think he’ll make an appearance. It’ll be a Phil Schiller/Scott Forstall show. PC Magazine points out that he might appear via FaceTime, which would be unlikely, but possible.
Mac OS X Lion — somewhat likely
On the one hand, it’s very clearly an iPad event. On the other hand, they recently issued the developer preview. I think they’ll save it until WWDC.
MobileMe changes — very likely
White iPhone 4 information — you’re joking, right?
Update: on further thought, this might actually happen.
White iPad — more likely than the iPhone
Quick note: I want to claim this before anyone else does. I think the second-generation iPad might have a carbon fibre internal frame and back, and I think the back will be painted. Think flatter, bigger iPhone 4. This way, they can do both the front and back in white or black.